Expected Value Decision Making (and adjustments)

Published on Nov 11, 2024

Making decisions with a focus on positive expected value (EV) is crucial in poker and strategy games, and it aligns well with REPS (Range, Expected Value, Perspective, and Story). Here’s why each aspect is important in decision-making, especially given the context that most players tend to under-bluff:

Anchor:

 - Focus on +EV devision making
 - Low stakes live can pass on break even decisions
 - Avoid funneling decision making to a break even spot

Importance of Positive Expected Value (EV) Decisions:

  1. Long-Term Profitability:

    • Positive EV decisions are those that, on average, yield a profit over the long run. By consistently making decisions with positive EV, you ensure that your overall results trend toward profitability, even if individual outcomes may vary due to variance.

    • Every decision you make, from calling, folding, or betting, should ideally have a clear expectation of gaining value over time.

  2. Avoiding Negative Expected Value Decisions:

    • Decisions with negative EV are ones that lead to a net loss over time. Even if they may work occasionally due to short-term variance, these actions erode profitability and chip away at your overall win rate.

    • Recognizing and avoiding negative EV decisions means folding in spots where your equity doesn’t justify the risk or resisting speculative plays that don’t offer a realistic chance of success.

  3. Passing on Break-Even Decisions:

    • Break-even plays might seem appealing because they don’t directly result in losses, but in practice, they consume mental energy and increase variance without offering real profit potential.

    • Since most players tend to under-bluff (i.e., they are less aggressive and make fewer attempts at deception than optimal), calling in marginal situations is unlikely to produce sufficient positive EV. Instead, a disciplined fold is often better unless you can prove a clear edge.

    • Passing on break-even scenarios helps you focus on spots where you have a clear advantage, maintaining an edge over less aware opponents.

Under-Bluffing Consideration:

  1. Exploitative Adjustments:

    • If your opponents are under-bluffing, it means their ranges are often more weighted toward value hands when they show aggression. In this context, calling down with marginal hands becomes less profitable, as the likelihood of facing a strong hand increases.

    • By recognizing this tendency, you can pass on marginal or break-even calls and focus on more advantageous situations where you have a clearer expectation of positive EV.

  2. Creating a Strong Defensive Strategy:

    • Knowing that players are under-bluffing allows you to fold more often without worrying about being overly exploited. This approach protects your stack and helps maintain your edge by selectively engaging in situations where you have a tangible positive expectation.

Summarizing the Approach:

• Focus on Positive EV: Prioritize actions that lead to long-term profitability.

• Avoid Negative EV: Discourage speculative plays that result in net losses.

• Pass on Break-Even EV: Recognize that marginal calls against under-bluffing opponents are often unprofitable and conserve mental and stack resources for better spots.

The REPS framework allows for a structured way of assessing these elements, leading to more disciplined, high-EV decisions that capitalize on opponents’ tendencies. This approach ensures your decisions consistently align with long-term gains while minimizing exposure to negative variance.